SS Futures Continue to Strengthen and Explore Gains, While Stainless Steel Spot Cargo Remains Weak with Prices Lingering at Low Levels [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

SMM October 23, SS futures showed a further strengthening upward trend. Driven by consecutive gains in ferrous metals, SS rose in sync, once testing above 12,800 yuan/mt during the session. Spot market side, although SS futures rose consecutively, the boost to the spot market was relatively limited, with traders' retail quotations remaining stable at low levels. Inquiries were moderate, but downstream confidence in the future market remained insufficient, and actual purchase transactions were not active. Today, a large stainless steel mill lowered its 201 and 316 listed prices, and market prices further declined. This week, social inventory increased significantly, down 0.65% WoW, falling to 946,400 mt.

Futures side, the most-traded contract 2512 held up well. At 10:30 am, SS2511 was quoted at 12,685 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Wuxi region 304/2B spot premiums/discounts were in the range of 335-635 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil averaged 8,000 yuan/mt; cold-rolled edge-trimmed 304/2B coil averaged 13,000 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 13,000 yuan/mt in Foshan; Wuxi region cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 25,500 yuan/mt, Foshan region 25,500 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was quoted at 24,950 yuan/mt in both locations; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.

Despite the traditional consumption peak season of "September-October peak season," October stainless steel planned production further increased, expected to approach 3.45 million mt again. However, the recovery in downstream end-use demand fell short of expectations, with market purchase transactions remaining sluggish, leading stainless steel inventory to end the previous destocking trend. Social inventory rose significantly within the week, reaching 950,000 mt. Cost side, affected by weak stainless steel market conditions, high-grade NPI prices pulled back due to traders' lack of confidence and increased willingness to sell. The previous tight supply situation for high-carbon ferrochrome eased, and with ferrochrome producers still maintaining good profit margins, prices showed signs of softening at high levels. Currently, the stainless steel spot market remains influenced by macro factors and futures price fluctuations driven by capital flows. Sino-US trade friction, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and policy guidance from the domestic 20th Fourth Plenum all contribute to significant market uncertainty. Subsequent attention should remain focused on changes in the macro environment and stainless steel demand conditions.